This is not a financial blog, but I can't resist adding my bit to the voluminous
commentary on the world's financial and economic crisis. I will limit my
comments to Japan's place in the scheme of things. Given my 39-year banking
career (24 of which in Japan) and the fact that I've been living in Japan
again since 2003, this seems a reasonable proposition.
But first a word about the context. By now it seems clear that the collapse of
some of the biggest Wall Street names is not merely a blip in the financial
system. It is a symptom of a deep seated disease: the sickness of American
society. Far from the "fundamentals" of the U.S. economy being "sound" as so
mindlessly claimed by John McCain just as the dominos were falling-they are
thoroughly rotten. And the sickness is by no means confined to the financial
sector, though the mindless lending and derivatives trading by Wall Street
"bankers" no doubt tipped the system over the edge.
From the mistaken war in Iraq, the long denial of global warming, and the
relentless preaching of "democracy" while cynically trading with
some of the world's most repressive regimes, to the lack of public health
insurance and the alarming neglect of vital infrastructure, the U.S. government
of at least the past eight years is guilty of gross mismanagement. Add
to that the evidence of unhealthy American eating patterns (more than 50%
of the population is overweight, half of them obese), the pervasive gun
culture, and above all, the irresponsible spending on housing and consumer
goods based not on savings but on running up huge, unsustainable levels
of personal debt - and the picture of America's multiple illnesses is becoming
painfully clear.
Of course it's not America alone that is guilty. The United Kingdom emulated
many of America's bad habits, as did most of the rest of Europe to varying
degrees.
But what about Japan?
When comparing Japan's present financial and social conditions to those
of the United States, it can safely be said that it suffers from none of
the ailments enumerated above. To be sure, Japan is grappling with other
serious problems such as a sharp fall in population, unresolved historical
issues with its neighbours, a decline in the quality of education, a huge
national debt, and an over-reliance on exports and manufacturing industries
at a time when China and other countries are more competitive. These and
other challenges will severely test the nation's leaders in the years ahead.
But for now and the foreseeable future, Japan's inner strengths are undeniable.
It is a remarkable turnaround from its own bust of almost twenty years
ago, when both stocks and property values fell precipitously, setting off
a long decade of painful adjustments. After a short period of reckless
spending, from the mid '70s to the late '80s, most Japanese returned to
traditional virtues of prudence and living-within-one's-means. The result
is that Japan today seems an island of sanity in a world that seems to
have taken leave of its senses. Japan's leaders, long chastened by the
debacle of the '90s, now seem newly emboldened, albeit reluctantly, to
speak up, sometimes even offering advice. To wit:
- Prime Minister Taro Aso proposed calling a summit of the Group of Eight
(with other nations added) on the economic crisis. and this was subsequently
agreed between him and President Bush
- Japan has offered to send accountants and lawyers with experience in sorting
out its financial mess in the 1990s to the U.S., to help evaluate America's
toxic assets, i.e. its huge pile of sub-prime mortgages
- Japan has expressed dismay at the U.S. decision to remove North Korea from
the 'axis of evil', and declined to resume giving aid to the country until
it has accounted for the Japanese nationals it abducted in the past
Against this background, two remarkable and seemingly contradictory developments
are worthy of note: the precipitous fall of the Nikkei stock index, on
the scale of the steepest declines in New York and London; and the strong
showing of the yen, which has risen to its highest level in years against
the dollar and the euro.
The recent sharp decline in share values must be due in large part to the
looming recession in Japan's chief export markets, the U.S. in particular,
which will severely affect its auto makers and the whole of its manufactured
goods industry. Added to this is an undoubted sense of panic, resulting
in a flight to the relative safety of bank deposits and government bonds
and, most of all, the massive sell-off of foreign investments by Japanese
private and institutional investors. The unwinding of this so-called "Yen
carry trade" is the main cause of the dramatic strengthening of the
yen, which also benefits from what clearly is the global perception of
the yen being - along with the dollar, yes - a safe haven in this time
of turmoil.
What we are seeing is the slow emergence of Japan as one of a handful of
nations that will, over time, help the U.S. in managing the world. Predictions
of America's demise as a great power are, I believe, premature. But there
is a growing consensus that we are heading for a multi-polar world whose
interdependence and co-operation will decide the fate of most of us.
Japan's new role will require great shifts in its society, far greater have been
necessary in the post-war past. Its snug (and sometimes smug) island mentality
must make way for true internationalism, which mandates changes in its political
culture as well as a revamp of its educational systems to produce graduates able
to communicate effectively across borders and provide leadership on many
international fora. In short, Japan's traditional reluctance to 'get involved'
must, in its own interest and that of the world, make way for a more activist
stance.
The process will take time, but I believe it has started and is irreversible.
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